Making annual market and financial predictions proved harder for Bob Doll and Crossmark International Investments in 2023 than in a typical 12 months, the chief funding officer indicated Monday.
By 12 months finish, Doll expects to have gotten solely 5 of his 10 predictions for 2023 proper, “certainly one of our worst years and effectively under our long-term common of seven.0-7.5,” he wrote in his weekly Doll’s Deliberations e-newsletter.
This 12 months was difficult for traders, as multiples expanded regardless of flattish earnings and a long-anticipated recession didn’t materialize, Doll famous. Fairness focus accelerated, because the “Magnificent 7″ large tech shares far outpaced the common inventory, he added.
Traders are relying on the Federal Reserve slicing rates of interest early subsequent 12 months to validate excessive inventory valuations, Doll mentioned.
The massive funding query for 2024 is whether or not consensus expectations for double-digit earnings development, no recession and early Fed charge cuts will occur, the CIO mentioned, positing that “we’re doubtful that each one these good issues can occur concurrently.”
Doll plans to launch his 2024 outlook on Dec. 29. Within the meantime, examine the gallery to see which of his 2023 predictions have been on and off the mark.